The COVID-19 pandemic is considered the most impactful global pandemic since the influenza outbreak in 1918. The OECD report employs detailed data categorized by age and gender. It scrutinizes variations in mortality patterns over the three years of the pandemic, which witnessed a substantial rise in death rates in many OECD countries. While a direct comparison of death counts to preceding years serves as a straightforward and important gauge for evaluating pandemic impact, considerable alterations have occurred in populations and demographics across most OECD nations. Adjusted mortality figures, factoring in demographic variables, underscore noteworthy distinctions in death rates across different years, states, and age groups.

Iceland Records Second-Lowest Excess Deaths

The report compares the overall death toll in OECD countries from 2020 to 2022 with the average number of deaths in the pre-pandemic years (2015–2019), accounting for each country's population and age structure. The methodology for calculating mortality changes, based on demographic trends, is elucidated in the report. Unlike previous comparisons that may not have adjusted for such trends, the analysis is significantly influenced by the significant increase in the elderly population and migration, resulting in substantial shifts in population and national age structures. Notably, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above has surged by 19% in the region from 2015 to 2022.

Taking these factors into consideration allows a realistic assessment of how many deaths occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in OECD countries beyond the expected numbers compared to previous years (i.e., excess deaths). The findings reveal that Iceland experienced fewer deaths than anticipated during the COVID-19 period, considering population growth and age structure, making it the second-lowest for excess deaths in the OECD after New Zealand.

5.3% Increase in Deaths in OECD Countries (2020–2022)

Adjusting for demographic variables, comparisons indicate that deaths in OECD countries were, on average, 5.3% higher in 2020–2022 than in the comparative pre-pandemic years. Throughout these three years, the region recorded 2 million excess deaths annually, with about half attributed to COVID-19.

Noteworthy variations exist among countries in terms of deaths during this period. Nine out of 41 countries demonstrated fewer deaths than expected during the COVID-19 years compared to the pre-pandemic period. Notably, New Zealand (-4.4%), Iceland, Norway, Ireland, Austria, Korea, Sweden, Luxembourg, and Israel. Conversely, OECD countries with the highest number of excess deaths include Colombia (+23.5%) and Mexico (+30.5%). See Figure 3.2 from the report below.

The OECD Report: OECD Health Working Paper No. 163

The Chief Epidemiologist