-Automatic translation-

The Chief Epidemiologist receives notifications of viral analyzes from laboratories and statistics of clinical diagnoses at health institutions, which are often based on rapid tests outside hospitals. In recent weeks, around 30 cases per week have been detected, which is a slight increase from earlier this summer, but considerably fewer than last winter. It is clear that some people use home tests for diagnosis or do no tests at all, so these numbers do not show the whole picture of infected people. However, hospitals conduct tests on those who have symptoms or are suspected of being infected, so most diagnosed cases come from there. The Chief Epidemiologist does not have information on the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19, but it has been stated in interviews with healthcare staff at Landspitali Hospital and other healthcare staff that the number of people hospitalized and sick outside of hospitals seems to have increased, although the numbers are still low compared to last winter when the last big wave of contagion passed.

At the end of week 31 (August 6, 2023), an increased number of notifications was also noticed in most age groups in the EU/EEA region according to European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). There was no general change in hospitalizations or deaths. However, the number of countries that conduct tests and submit notifications has decreased, so numbers must be taken with caution. Outside of Europe, there has been an increase in cases and hospitalizations, e.g. in the United States and the United Kingdom, and an increase in deaths in the United States. However, numbers are low compared to last winter.

People with symptoms (cold symptoms, sore throat, cough, fever, tiredness) are encouraged to use home tests and take as much rest as possible to avoid infecting others. Individuals in high-risk groups or 60 years and older should contact their doctor if they think they have contracted COVID-19, due to an assessment of the possibility of specific drug treatment, and anyone with symptoms of infection should show special caution in close proximity to vulnerable individuals.

In the countries that submit virus sequences, XBB.1.5 remains the most common variant. Other reported variants are as usual XBB and BA.2.75 but BQ.1 is rare.

ECDC now classifies all XBB.1.5-like subvariants with the mutation F456L as variants of interest (VOI), which the agency then monitors separately. The spread of these varieties has increased most proportionally in the world recently, and the reason for this is perhaps that the immune response due to vaccinations or previous infections has less effect on them. No greater severity of illness has been observed for these subvariants. See ECDC and WHO for details.

It is clear that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still circulating and has been in different waves over the past 12 months. The infection numbers in Iceland are now lower than they were last summer and much lower than the winter before that when the omicron wave first hit. The same is true on the European continent, although the frequency of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths occurs in waves, the trend has been downward compared to what it was before. Older people and high-risk groups will continue to be the worst hit, and booster vaccination of these groups will therefore be recommended this fall to minimize serious illness and death due to COVID-19, but an increased number of infections can be expected during the flu season this fall and winter. More information about the vaccination schedule this fall will be published in September.

See more:

• From the Chief Epidemiologist on vaccinations against COVID-19

• ECDC. The situation in Europe Week 32

• ECDC. Vaccinations autumn 2023

The Chief Epidemiologist